This is a fascinating read from The Bulletin of the Atoimc Scientists – A ‘plague’ comes before the fall: lessons from Roman history. How and why it happened and what parallels are applicable today.
This highly cited article – Pandemics Throughout History – merits a perusal.
Apparently, decades ago and a heck of a lot. Documents culled from a variety of sources trace what the oil and gas sector knew about its impact on the environment. They were a major part of the problem; now they are touting themselves as part of the solution.
The Climate Deception Dossiers from the Union of Concerned Scientists further reinforces the above.
Here is a timeline of ExxonMobil’s involvement in this ongoing crisis.
This study – The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world – postulates that with climate change accelerating the development of ever stronger TCs (tropical cyclones) with their concurrent stronger winds, a higher category than the present Category 5 is needed to emphasize the destructiveness of these more frequent megastorms.
For those of us who have lived through a Cat 5 storm (levels defined here by the National Weather Service), the necessity of adding a higher defined storm level is sobering news indeed.
This report, Congressionally mandated to appear every four to five years, shows the impact of climate change on our country. The outlook is not good:
“The effects of human-caused climate change are already far-reaching and worsening across every region of the United States…. without deeper cuts in global net greenhouse gas emissions and accelerated adaptation efforts, severe climate risks to the United States will continue to grow.” (Overview)
There are thirty-two chapters divided among the following topics: physical science, national topics, regions, and responses along with additional features and appendices.
if you do not have time to read the entire document, at least look at the chapter on the northeast.
Previous reports can be found here.
This site from the National Institutes of Health offers “A glossary of terms used to describe the science of climate change and its impacts on human health. The goal of this glossary is to help standardize language, enable data harmonization, and encourage clear communication on climate change and health among scientists, health care providers, policymakers, advocates, educators, and others.”
One can search by keyword or category; each entry points out related terms and categories as well.
Insurance rate increases or insurers pulling out of markets like California and Florida are becoming more common. As damage from floods, wildfire, and winds continue to profilerate throughout the country, the pressure on insurers just ramps up. This report from the First Street Foundation – 9th National Risk Assessment (free registration required) – examines this issue, and the results are not optimistic. There is a lot of information in these pages, along with helpful links. It is a short read, but one that encapsulates the ongoing problems facing the nation as climate change impacts our weather more severely than before.
These ten graphics illustrate the devastating impacts of climate change from heat domes to wildfires. They are harbingers of future environmental declines.
According to this article from Nature – Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation – the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (of which the Gulf Stream is a major part) could be severely disrupted by the effects greenhouse gasses (increased freshwater melting from the Arctic) sooner than the IPCC prediction of 2100; the newer models have it collapsing mid-century.
What are the consequences of this? An abrupt climate change, which is what we are talking about, would result in “… an ice age in Europe and sea-level rise in cities such as Boston and New York, as well as more potent storms and hurricanes along the East Coast.” (USA Today) The Union of Concerned Scientists postulates that “The rising sea levels will impact coastal communities as flooding happens more often and damage from coastal storms becomes more severe. Some regions will become much drier, while others will become much wetter, affecting agriculture, water supply, and the spread of diseases. “
While the Nature article is highly technical, here is an accessible explanation of it: A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that ‘would affect every person on the planet’ from CNN.
Additional information on climate change can be found here at the National Academies.
With major climatic upheavals being witnessed throughout the world, especially the rising heat and flooding rains, this relevant article from The Guardian – From climate change ‘certainty’ to rapid decline: a timeline of IPCC reports – comes none too soon. It traces the publication of the IPCC reports and special reports over a thrity-year timeframe as well as offering a brief summary of each one. We have ignored these scientific releases for far too long; we have too many climate deniers in high places.
And if the dire predictions in these reports were not sufficient enough to change minds, this just-released study – Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change – baldly states that “Without human induced climate change these heat events would however have been extremely rare.”
This can be further reinforced by this July 18, 2023 document Simultaneous heatwaves hit northern hemisphere in summer of extremes from the World Meteorological Organization that states that what is presently occurring is the “new normal”.
We in the Northeast of late have encountered unprecedented atmospheric perturbations due to Canadian wildfires. But what we have experienced pales in comparison to the aftereffects of a nuclear exchange. Imagine what we have gone through magnified over decades. Such is the scenario first presented in the 1983 Long-Term Biological Consequences of Nuclear War, a groundbreaking examination authored by some of the world’s most respected scientists, among them Carl Sagan. What is explained in the article is what is termed “nuclear winter“.
This study – The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves – posits that “Heatwaves are becoming more frequent under climate change and can lead to thousands of excess deaths. Adaptation to extreme weather events often occurs in response to an event, with communities learning fast following unexpectedly impactful events. Using extreme value statistics, here we show where regional temperature records are statistically likely to be exceeded, and therefore communities might be more at-risk.” (abstract) Read to find what areas of the world are expected to be affected by extreme heat in the not-too-distant future.
Here is a good explainer of the above.
According to recent studies, the southeastern part of the United States – Miami, New Orleans, Houston – are experiencing rising sea levels at triple the rate previous studies had indicated. This leads to catastropic flooding and increasingly violent hurricanes. The reports are: Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability (Nature Communications, April 10, 2023) and Rapid Decadal Acceleration of Sea Level Rise along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts during 2010-2022 and Its Impact on Hurricane-Induced Storm Surge (Journal of Climate, March 2, 2023; abtsract only).
This article – Southeastern U.S. Seas Are Rising at Triple the Global Average (Scientific American, April 11, 2023) explains the reports’ conclusions in lucid, non-technical language.
The NOAA February 2022 report – 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report – can be seen as the trigger for the later studies.
The latest version of the National Climate Assessment report has been released; it proves to be a sobering read. Explore the northeast section of the document. The highlights portion will give you the essentials.
The World Meteorolical Organization’s Provisional State of the Global Climate 2022 also paints a dire picture: extreme temperatures, flooding, droughts, wildfires, increases in methane in the atmosphere, and the like.
As with many live-changing events in our lives, those in the New York City environs well remember Sandy, its power, and its aftermath. The destruction overwhelmed communities and some have yet to fully recover. This CBS News special Sandy:10 Years Later provises a launching pad for extensive coverage and archival features.
Other sites that should be consulted:
Ten Years After Sandy: Barrier to Resilience (NYC Comptroller);
When the Ocean Met the Bay: 10 Years Later, an Oral History of Superstorm Sandy (Philadelphia Magazine);
the Weather Channel’s Superstorm Sandy By The Numbers 10 Years Later;
Sandy Graphics Archive (National Hurricane Center);
Photos (thousands courtesy of Getty Images);
Reducing Coastal Risk on the East and Gulf Coasts and Making U.S. Ports Resilient as Part of Extended Intermodal Supply Chains and Framing the Challenge of Urban Flooding in the United States (all National Academies Press);
Congressional Record; and
Remembering Superstorm Sandy(NJ101.5).
We have all seen the news footage about the lack of water in the Southwest, how the Colorado River is gradually diappearing along with Lake Mead. This is because that area is in the midst of an unprecented megadrought that has lasted for 1,200 years.
The mighty Colorado River, explored by John Weley Powell and written about in his thrilling report – Exploration of the Colorado River of the West and its tributaries. Explored in 1869, 1870, 1871, and 1872, under the direction of the secretary of the Smithsonian institution (1875), is the “premier” river of the American Southwest and its drainage basins encompass six states and Mexico, providing water, and hydroelectricty, to millions of people. However, the constant population growth and the concurrent demands made on this river has diminished its capacity to supply the needed water. It is this dire:
“The Colorado River’s decline has drained three-quarters of the water from the nation’s largest reservoirs, falling closer than ever to levels where hydroelectric dams can’t generate power and millions will lose access to drinking water and irrigation supplies”. (The Washington Post, August 16, 2022)
The above just reinforces the Statement of Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton, Bureau of Reclamation before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources U.S. Senate June 14, 2022 that stated that the area has reached a tipping point and certain measures have to be enacted. Among them is the reduction in the amount of water states can take from the river by invoking a Tier 2 emergency cutting water use in Arizona by 21 percent, Nevada by 8 percent and the country of Mexico by 7 percent.
There have been other proposals offered: here is a 2011 plan to divert flood waters from the Mississippi River to the Southwest; another project would take water from the Great Lakes.
This situation is further complicated by a vast network of treaties/agreements/understandings under which the river is operated; these laws have been codified into what is labelled The Law of the River.
This just released CRS report – Management of the Colorado River: Water Allocations, Drought, and the Federal Role – is most informative as is another recent report – Responding to Drought in the Colorado River Basin: Federal and State Efforts.
Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North Americn megadrought in 2020-21 (Nature Climate Change, 2022) states that 2000 to 2021 was the driest period since at least 800 C.E. and that this prolonged event will continue because “…aridity has dominated the 2000s, as evidenced by declines in two of North America’ largest reservoirs, Lakes Mead and Powell, both on the Colorado River.”(1)
This study, accompanied by graphs and charts, reinforces previous writings on this topic such as Climate Change Has Helped Fuel a Megadrought in the Southwest (Scientific American, 2020); Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest (Science Advances AAAS, 2016); Climate Change and Water in Southwestern North America Special Feature (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010); Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American Southwest (Science Advances AAAS, 2019); Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change (Geohealth, 2019); Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought (Science, 2020); Anthropogenic megadrought (Science, 2020); Five decades of observed daily precipitation reveal longer and more variable drought events across much of the western United States (Geophysical Research Letters, 2021); and Climate change and the aridification of North America (PNAS, 2020).
It can be read here, courtesy of The Washington Post.
As the numerous storms/fires/floods that have beset the globe indicate, our climate is changing in ways that are too fast for us to predict let alone comprehend. Dire warnings have been issued for decades, yet the efforts made to reduce carbon emissions are certainly not the most extensive that the world’s countries can undertake. There is a lack of political will that will most assuredly result in degraded outcomes. The Biden administration, through executive orders, has had four major reports generated on climate change and national security; these reports were issued today. They are: National Intelligence Estimate: Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040 (National Intelligence Council); Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis (DOD); DHS Strategic Framework for Addressing Climate Change (DHS); and Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Immigration (The White House).
And to reinforce the extremity of our circumstances, the 2021 Lancet Countdown (free registration required) on climate and health makes for sobering reading.
In light of the recent devastating floods both in the Southeast and Northeast, perusing these collections is a worthwhile endeavor: Flood Resilience: Preparedness and Recovery Collection and Emergency Preparedness / Disaster Management Collection.
Dire predictions on the rapid acceleration of climate change are detailed in the AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis from the IPCC. It has gotten so bad that even if measures are immediately instituted to mitigate the carbon emissions, it will take decades before the planet reaches a new equilibrium. We have little time to correct the downward spiral we are now in. The full report, all 4000 pages – is available here. A more manageable summary – 42 pages – is also online.
Reports from The New York Times and The Washington Post provide succinct overviews of the situation.
Congressman Frank J. Guarini Library Blog 